So, Rigetti Computing’s stock is on a three-day bender. The reason? They sold a couple of machines. And the market, in its infinite, twitchy wisdom, decided this tiny, cash-hemorrhaging quantum computing outfit is suddenly the next Nvidia.

Let's all just take a breath and step back from the ledge.

I’ve seen this movie before. A company with barely a pulse announces some vaguely positive news—a patent, a pilot program, a "strategic partnership" with some other no-name startup—and suddenly, the stock chart looks like a cardiogram during a panic attack. Everyone piles in, terrified of missing out on the next ten-bagger, and nobody bothers to read the fine print.

And with Rigetti, the fine print is the whole story.

The $5.7 Million "Windfall"

Let's get into the numbers, because they’re almost comical. Rigetti announced it sold two of its 9-qubit Novera quantum computers for a grand total of $5.7 million. The stock shot up over 11% on the news, leading to headlines like Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Surges to New High on New Million-Dollar Novera System Orders. People are celebrating like the company just cured male pattern baldness.

But hold on. Over the last entire year, Rigetti’s total sales were a measly $7.9 million. So yes, this one deal represents a whopping 72% of their annual revenue. This isn't a sign of a booming business; it’s a sign of a business that was practically a rounding error before this. This is like a guy who's been living on ramen noodles finding a $20 bill on the street and his friends starting a GoFundMe to build him a mansion. It’s a lifeline, not a lottery win.

And who are these saviors, these visionary buyers? The press release tells us one is "an Asian technology manufacturing company" and the other is a "California-based applied physics and artificial intelligence start-up."

Give me a break.

That’s the kind of vague, hand-wavy description you use when you don’t want people looking too closely. Is the "Asian technology manufacturing company" a global powerhouse, or is it three guys in a rented office space trying to reverse-engineer the thing? Is the "California start-up" the next DeepMind, or is it a Stanford dropout with a PowerPoint deck and a rich uncle? We have no idea, and Rigetti is clearly banking on us not caring. I can just picture the scene: some junior PR person, hunched over a laptop in a mostly empty office, the clatter of their keys echoing as they try to spin two sales into a paradigm shift for humanity.

The Absurdity of Hype-Based Math

Now for the truly insane part. The valuation. Some reports are throwing around numbers that suggest Rigetti is valued at over 1,300 times its sales. Let me repeat that: one-thousand-three-hundred times. With zero profits. This is a bad idea. No, 'bad' doesn't cover it—this is a five-alarm dumpster fire of financial logic. It’s the kind of math that only makes sense at 3 a.m. at a crypto conference in Miami.

The CEO, Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, chimed in with the kind of perfectly polished PR quote that makes my skin crawl: "We are excited to see the increased demand for on-premises quantum computing systems as the industry matures."

Let's deconstruct that. "Increased demand." He means they went from one or two sales to... maybe three or four? Two sales is not a trend; it's a data point. And "as the industry matures"? The quantum computing industry is so far from mature it's still in diapers. A 9-qubit machine ain't gonna crack global encryption or design a warp drive. It's a research tool, a novelty for other smart people to poke at. It's the beginning of the beginning.

This whole thing feels less like a technology revolution and more like a masterclass in market psychology. We're so desperate for the "Next Big Thing" that we'll project our hopes and dreams onto any company that utters the magic words "quantum" or "AI." It’s a cargo cult for tech investors. They're selling a promise, a dream, and the market is buying it hook, line, and sinker, because honestly... who wants to be the one who missed out?

And here’s the kicker: these miracle machines aren't even expected to be delivered until the first half of 2026. Two years from now. A million things could happen between now and then. The buyers could run out of money. The tech could be superseded. The world could end. But the stock is rallying today as if the check has already cleared and been reinvested into a money-printing machine. Then again, maybe I’m the crazy one here. Maybe this really is the future.

A Lottery Ticket Dressed in a Lab Coat

Let's be real. Rigetti isn't a thriving business right now; it's a science project funded by stock market speculation. This recent pop isn't based on fundamentals, it's based on a story. A story about a plucky underdog in a revolutionary field that just got a tiny little vote of confidence. It’s a great story. But you don't invest in stories. You invest in businesses. And a business that makes one big sale every couple of years offcourse isn't a business, it's a gamble. This stock ain't a ticket to the future; it's a lottery ticket with a picture of a circuit board on it. Good luck with that.